As Myanmar’s civil conflict enters its fourth year following the military coup in February 2021, the situation remains dire and increasingly volatile. Despite the junta’s overwhelming military superiority, the resistance led by pro-democracy groups and ethnic militias has intensified its efforts, and the conflict has expanded geographically and technologically. The increasing use of drones and the mounting humanitarian disaster present critical concerns for both Myanmar and the broader region.
The Military Junta Struggles to Retain Control
After the ousting of Myanmar’s democratically elected government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the military’s attempts to suppress widespread civil disobedience and protests failed to crush resistance. The ensuing war has seen the rise of a highly coordinated resistance movement, primarily led by the National Unity Government (NUG), which includes ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy factions. These resistance forces have gained momentum, successfully reclaiming territory in several regions, including Shan State and Rakhine. Even in areas long controlled by the military, local militias and ethnic groups continue to challenge junta forces, forcing the military to retreat from several key positions.
One of the most significant tactical developments in the last year has been the increasing use of drones by the resistance groups. The NUG has launched drone strikes against military targets, including the capital, Naypyidaw, and several critical airstrips and military installations. These drone attacks are seen as a crucial shift in the balance of power, demonstrating the growing capability of anti-junta forces despite their lack of conventional military resources. This shift marks a transition from traditional guerrilla warfare to more technologically advanced tactics, challenging the junta’s air superiority and strengthening the resolve of the resistance groups.
Ethnic Armed Groups and Territorial Shifts
In addition to the NUG, Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups—many of whom have fought the military for decades—have played a pivotal role in the conflict. The Arakan Army, in particular, has been gaining territory in the west, pushing into northern Rakhine State. Their success has been a thorn in the side of the military, particularly as the Arakan Army continues to clash with the military over territory that is also home to the persecuted Rohingya population. The Arakan Army, which has its roots in Buddhist Rakhine nationalism, aims to establish greater autonomy in the region. Their increasing strength complicates the situation in Rakhine, which remains one of the poorest and most conflict-ridden states in Myanmar.
The situation for the Rohingya, who were subjected to brutal military-led atrocities in 2017, continues to worsen. Reports indicate that the ethnic minority group has found itself caught between the warring factions, facing continued persecution and being denied citizenship. The instability in Rakhine has led to an alarming rise in the displacement of civilians, while many of the indigenous Rohingya face restrictions on their movement and limited access to humanitarian aid.
A Devastating Humanitarian Crisis
The humanitarian impact of the conflict has been catastrophic. According to the United Nations, nearly 25% of Myanmar’s population, approximately 12.9 million people, are in need of food assistance. The situation is exacerbated by a crumbling healthcare system and the rapid depletion of medical supplies. As of 2024, 18.6 million people are expected to need humanitarian aid, a figure that has grown drastically since the coup.
In addition to the immediate human toll, Myanmar has become a hub for illicit economies, including the production of methamphetamines and opium. These criminal networks thrive in regions where the military has lost control, with these illicit activities spilling across borders and fueling global criminal operations. Human trafficking and cybercrime operations, including online scams, have also surged, particularly in border regions.
International Response and Regional Implications
While the military junta remains defiant in the face of international condemnation, Myanmar’s crisis has drawn global attention. The United Nations has condemned the junta’s abuses and called for greater international involvement, but the lack of a unified international strategy has hampered efforts to end the conflict. Despite significant support from Western nations for anti-junta groups, Russia has been a vocal supporter of Myanmar’s military regime, complicating international diplomatic efforts. Russia has criticized Western nations for supporting armed opposition groups and accused them of destabilizing the region for geopolitical gain.
One of the most concerning aspects of Myanmar’s civil war is its regional spillover effects. The conflict has destabilized neighboring countries, particularly Thailand, Bangladesh, and China, all of which are dealing with the consequences of border tensions, refugee crises, and the increasing flow of illicit goods. The ongoing conflict has also increased the possibility of further internationalized warfare, with the involvement of neighboring states or the extension of violent extremism.
A Call for Unified Action
In the wake of continued violence and escalating human rights abuses, the international community has been urged to take more decisive action. The UN has called for a more unified response, with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressing the need for ASEAN, as well as other international stakeholders, to leverage their influence to push for a peaceful resolution. However, Myanmar’s military junta has shown little interest in meaningful dialogue, and recent drone attacks from resistance forces show that the military is struggling to regain control of key areas, marking a critical juncture in the conflict.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
As Myanmar heads into 2025, the conflict shows no signs of abating. The junta’s increasing reliance on force has not been enough to quell the growing resistance, and territorial shifts suggest the military’s grip on power is weakening. Drones have emerged as a game-changing tool for resistance groups, and the humanitarian crisis continues to deepen, affecting millions. With international diplomacy stalled and the region increasingly destabilized, Myanmar’s future remains uncertain. The international community faces a stark choice: either take more robust action to support democratic forces and ensure humanitarian aid reaches the millions in need, or risk watching Myanmar descend further into a protracted, bloody conflict with global implications.
